Bottom 5 neighborhoods in the GTA, rated on safety risk

Safety is a key consideration for a renter. We looked at the crime data (including serious traffic incidents) across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to score each of the 140 neighborhoods on safety. We looked at data the last five years and rated some factors as more serious than others (eg. murders vs shoplifting). The scoring method is subjective but should be directional to any renter who is looking to make a renting decision in the GTA. Here are the five worst neighborhoods rated on safety risk – as highlighted in yellow in the neighborhood map of Toronto.

Safety scoring methodology

The safety of a neighborhood is calculated using a combination of major crime indicators including homicide, assaults, shootings, robberies, break in and enter, auto theft, theft over and traffic injuries. Using data science tools applied to recent and historical data for every crime indicator, a mathematical model generates a safety risk score for each neighborhood.
In simple words, each crime indicator has a rate for every neighborhood in the GTA on a specific year. The rate is the number of occurrences the specific type of crime happens this specific year and calculated for every 100k citizens.

Some design considerations.

• Each type of crime has a specific weight, and crimes that are more impactful than others have higher weights. For example, homicide’s weight is higher than auto theft’s weight.
• Recent data are more significant than later ones and so have higher weights than others. For example, 2020 data are weighted higher than the 2014 data.

5. University

University neighborhood is seeing a big decrease in the traffic related incidents from 2018 continuing till 2020. The assault rates have decreased almost 50% since 2014. However Break in and enter crimes are still significantly high and that affects the risk rating.

• Neighborhood ID : 79
• Dwello safety risk score (out of 100) : 335.04
• Renter population : 62.4% or 2,120 household
• Male-female Ratio : 98.4
• Population (2020 census): 7,852
• Population (2016 census): 7,607
• Five year growth: -2.2%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 33.6%
• % population taking public transit to work: 36%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 7.3%

4. Church-Yonge Corridor

Church-Yonge Corridor risk score is most influenced by assault rates, which are very high.

• Neighborhood ID : 75
• Dwello safety risk score : 431.16
• Renter population: 70.5% or 13,875 household
• Male/Female Ratio: 120.6
• Population (2020 census): 32,354
• Population (2016 census): 31,340
• Five year growth :+10.6%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 91.7%
• % population taking public transit to work: 38.7%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 8.5%

3. Bay Street Corridor

Bay Street Corridor is ranked #2 in the highest numbers of traffic related incidents and homicides among the worst 5 neighborhoods. In 2020, Bay Street Corridor showed a decline in the assault rates but overall in the last 5 years, the rate is still high.

• Neighborhood ID : 76
• Dwello safety risk score : 445.92
• Renter population: 67.9% or 10,235 household
• Male/Female Ratio : 89.2
• Population (2020 census): 26,631
• Population (2016 census): 25,797
• Five year growth: +3.33%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 98.1%
• % population taking public transit to work: 30%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 7.2%

2. Kensington-Chinatown

Kensington-Chinatown is one of the highest rates in assaults and theft. Kensington-Chinatown shows the highest rates in shootings and break in and enter and auto thefts.

• Neighborhood ID : 78
• Dwello safety risk score: 453.66
• Renter population: 71.0% or 6,200 household
• Male/Female Ratio :96.7
• Population (2020 census): 18,525
• Population (2016 census): 17,945
• Five year growth: -5.3%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 53.1%
• % population taking public transit to work: 26.8%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 8.9%

1. Moss Park

Moss Park has the highest rate of traffic related injuries, robberies, assaults and homicides out of all neighborhoods in the GTA with a big gap of score between it and the second worst neighborhood regarding safety.

• Neighborhood ID : 73
• Dwello safety risk score: 582.073
• Renter population: 66% or 7,630 household
• Male/Female Ratio : 117.6
• Population (2020 census): 21,169
• Population (2016 census): 20,506
• Five year growth: +2.58%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 71%
• % population taking public transit to work: 31.6%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 8.1%