Top 5 neighborhoods in the GTA rated on safety

Safety is a key consideration for a renter. We looked at the crime data (including serious traffic incidents) across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to score each of the 140 neighborhoods on safety. We looked at data the last five years and rated some factors as more serious than others (eg. murders vs shoplifting). The scoring method is subjective but should be directional to any renter who is looking to make a renting decision in the GTA. Here are the five best neighborhoods rated on safety – as highlighted in white in the neighborhood map of Toronto.

 

Safety scoring methodology

The safety of a neighborhood is calculated using a combination of major crime indicators including homicide, assaults, shootings, robberies, break in and enter, auto theft, theft over and traffic injuries. Using data science tools applied to recent and historical data for every crime indicator, a mathematical model generates a safety risk score for each neighborhood.
In simple words, each crime indicator has a rate for every neighborhood in the GTA on a specific year. The rate is the number of occurrences the specific type of crime happens this specific year and calculated for every 100k citizens.

Some design considerations.

• Each type of crime has a specific weight, and crimes that are more impactful than others have higher weights. For example, homicide’s weight is higher than auto theft’s weight.
• Recent data are more significant than later ones and so have higher weights than others. For example, 2020 data are weighted higher than the 2014 data.

5. Lawrence Park North

 

Lawrence Park is ranked #2 in the lowest numbers of traffic related incidents among the top 5 neighborhoods. Recently, Lawrence park have significantly shown a decline in the break in and enter crimes of more than 51% since 2014. Key statistics on the neighborhood are below.

• Neighborhood ID : 105
• Dwello safety risk score (out of 100) : 65.99
• Renter population : 24.2% or 1,310 households
• Male-female Ratio : 93.6
• Population (2020 census): 15,079
• Population (2016 census): 14,706
• Five year growth: +0.5%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 3.7%
• % population taking public transit to work: 41.7%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 4.5%

4. Leaside-Bennington

 

Leaside Bennington trends low on shootings and robberies compared to other neighborhoods. Neighborhood has seen decrease in the number of assaults in the last 4 years. Compared to other “safe” neighborhoods as per Dwello’s score, Leaside Bennington has the highest numbers of injuries from traffic accidents and auto thefts incidents.

• Neighborhood ID : 56
• Dwello safety risk score : 65.73
• Renter population: 28.0% 1,805 household
• Male/Female Ratio: 92.0
• Population (2020 census): 17,371
• Population (2016 census): 16,828
• Five year growth: -1.1%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 8.1%
• % population taking public transit to work: 24.2%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 7.3%

3. Edenbridge-Humber Valley

 

Edenbridge-Humber Valley shows a large 19% decrease in the accidents related to traffic in the last 2 years. This contributes to the safety score. It has also reached its lowest number of break and enter rate since 2014. Of late there has been an increase of the rate of auto theft and robbery rates since 2017. This lowered its score. While the numbers are not large, Edenbridge-Humber Valley has the highest numbers of shooting incidents among the top 5 neighborhoods in this list.

• Neighborhood ID : 9
• Dwello safety risk score : 64.38
• Renter population: 43.9% 2,745 household
• Male/Female Ratio : 90.4
• Population (2020 census): 16,037
• Population (2016 census): 15,535
• Five year growth: +4..0%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 38.6%
• % population taking public transit to work: 28.4%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 14.5%

2. Yonge-St.Clair

 

Yonge-St. Clair is the best among the top 5 neighborhoods in traffic safety, auto theft and shootings. This contributes to the high safety rating.

• Neighborhood ID : 97
• Dwello safety risk score: 57.09
• Renter population: 61.7% or 4,325 households
• Male/Female Ratio :80.3
• Population (2020 census): 12,758
• Population (2016 census): 12,528
• Five year growth: +7.5%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 62%
• % population taking public transit to work: 49.8%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes

1. Steeles

 

Steeles is calculated as having the safest risk profile in the GTA due its consistency in decreasing its crime rates. Traffic incidents have declined 28% since 2018. Break-in and Enter incidents have declined more than 38% since 2014. Robbery and theft scores are also the lowest across all neighborhoods.

• Neighborhood ID : 116
• Dwello safety risk score: 51.69
• Renter population: 16.1% or 1,260 household
• Male/Female Ratio :91.6
• Population (2020 census): 25,419
• Population (2016 census): 24,623
• Five year growth: -1.6%
• 5+ Storey apartments: 34.9%
• % population taking public transit to work: 23.4%
• % population doing 1 hour commutes: 19.4%